Executive Summary

Q1 2025 revenue was $13.21M, up 4.8% year-over-year; diluted EPS was $0.31 and AFFO per share was $0.51, reflecting resilient rent collections and disciplined underwriting .
Against S&P Global consensus, the company delivered a revenue and EPS beat: revenue $13.21M vs $12.29M estimate, EPS $0.31 vs $0.29 estimate; EBITDA modestly missed ($10.38M actual vs $10.74M estimate). Bolded below in Estimates Context.*
Dividend of $0.43 per share (84% AFFO payout) was maintained; liquidity remained strong at ~$102M and leverage extremely low (~1.6% debt to gross assets), supporting capital deployment and dividend stability .
Key near-term catalysts: resolution of Calypso rental normalization in Pennsylvania, re-tenanting efforts for Revolutionary Clinics, and federal schedule reform progress; management highlighted cautious industry outlook but affirmed portfolio cash-flow durability .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Revenue growth and stable collections: $13.21M revenue (+4.8% YoY) with ~98% contractual rent collected in Q1, aided by escrow/security deposit application and subsequent full rent receipt from Calypso .
Dividend coverage maintained: AFFO payout ratio of 84% remains within the 80–90% target range; liquidity ~$102M and only ~$7.6M drawn on revolver underscore balance sheet strength .
Strategic progress and portfolio resilience: Small accretive acquisitions (Cresco OH dispensary) and focus on limited-license states underpin property-level cash-flow coverage; management reiterated differentiated underwriting and low leverage positioning .

What Went Wrong

AFFO modestly down YoY and sequentially: AFFO declined 2.2% YoY and slipped vs Q4, driven by higher professional fees and timing of tenant billbacks/reimbursements recognized on a cash basis .
Tenant distress and receivership: Revolutionary Clinics continued to pay ~50% of rent with expected possession by end of Q2; re-leasing in Massachusetts may take time given a challenging market .
TI disbursement uncertainty: ~$11.7M in unfunded TI (primarily C3 Connecticut) faces timing uncertainty after construction pricing escalations; near-term modeling assumes paused disbursements .

Financial Results

Metric	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD)	$12.554M	$12.514M	$13.209M
Net Income Attributable to Common ($USD)	$6.422M	$6.029M	$6.297M
Diluted EPS ($)	$0.31	$0.29	$0.31
FFO ($USD)	$10.260M	$9.922M	$10.283M
AFFO ($USD)	$10.763M	$10.949M	$10.724M
FFO per share – Diluted ($)	$0.49	$0.47	$0.49
AFFO per share – Diluted ($)	$0.51	$0.52	$0.51

KPIs and Balance Sheet

KPI	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Rent Collection (%)	~97%	N/A	~98%
Dividend per share ($)	$0.43 (84% payout)	$0.43 (83% payout)	$0.43 (84% payout)
Liquidity ($USD)	~$102M	~$102.6M	~$102.3M
Revolver Outstanding ($USD)	~$7.6M	$7.6M	~$7.6M
Availability under Revolver ($USD)	~$82.4M	~$82.4M	~$82.4M
Debt to Gross Assets (%)	N/A	~1.6%	~1.6%
Properties (#)	32	33	33
Tenant Coverage (EBITDAR, latest available)	Cultivation 3.4x; Dispensary 8.8x	Cultivation 3.5x; Dispensary 9.0x	Cultivation 3.4x; Dispensary 8.6x

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Dividend payout ratio target	Ongoing	80–90% range	80–90% range (reaffirmed)	Maintained
Dividend per share	Q1 2025	$0.43 declared	$0.43 declared; paid Apr 15, 2025	Maintained
TI/Capex – C3 CT	2025	~$11.7M unfunded commitments; timing TBD	Management advised to pause modeling TI distributions near term	Lowered/Deferred
Rent – Revolutionary Clinics	Q2 2025	50% contractual rent ongoing	Expect ~50% until building possession by end of Q2; re-tenanting in process	Maintained interim terms

Note: Management does not provide formal revenue/EPS guidance; dividend policy and payout targets are reiterated. Revolver terms and maturities unchanged; next debt maturity May 2027 .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q3 2024 and Q4 2024)	Current Period (Q1 2025)	Trend
Regulatory/rescheduling	Detailed discussion of DEA Schedule III timeline and state-level catalysts (KY, PA, FL outcomes)	DEA rescheduling delays; nominee pledged priority; multiple cannabis bills introduced; watching administration signals	Ongoing, cautious optimism
Macro/tariffs/recession	Industry headwinds and cautious outlook discussed	Tariffs impact modest for cannabis; recession resilience like alcohol; less concern for portfolio impact	Neutral-to-positive resilience
Tenant issues (Rev Clinics, Calypso)	Rev paying 50% rent; Calypso using escrow; strong demand for PA facility	Rev 50% rent; possession expected end-Q2; Calypso quarter fully collected; recap supports vertical integration	Stabilizing; resolution progressing
Sale-leaseback demand/refinancing wall	TAM discussion; billions of real estate on operator balance sheets	Near-term capex demand limited; refinancing opportunities may spur SLBs; ~$2B public company real estate	Opportunities in select cases
Uplisting/liquidity	TSX structure exploration; buyback/ATM flexibility	Liquidity ~$102M; reiteration of balance sheet strength; no new listing updates	Steady; focus on balance sheet
International	Limited prior discussion	Evaluating Europe; Germany legalization; potential to support tenants abroad	Emerging optionality
TI commitments/cost inflation	CT market underbuilt; TI funded across properties	C3 CT TI timing uncertain due to higher construction pricing; paused modeling	Cost pressure; timing delays

Management Commentary

“Our first quarter financial results underscore the consistency and resilience of our portfolio... we delivered an 84% AFFO payout ratio.” — CEO Anthony Coniglio .
“We have strong liquidity, one of the lowest leverage ratios in the REIT sector and ample credit capacity.” — Chairman Gordon DuGan .
“We expect to take possession of [Rev Clinics’] building towards the end of June… re-leasing [in Massachusetts] will take some time.” — SVP Jarrett Annenberg .
“While headlines may weigh on sentiment, our focus on property level cash flow and limited license markets provides a buffer against broader volatility.” — CEO Anthony Coniglio .

Q&A Highlights

C3 Connecticut TI: ~$11.7M unfunded; timing uncertain after higher construction costs; management advised pausing TI distribution in near-term models .
Revolutionary Clinics impact: 50% rent to continue until possession; AFFO per-share impact ~ $0.015; re-tenanting efforts underway .
Calypso: After escrow application, remaining Q1 rent collected; expectation to receive full rent going forward subject to regulatory approval .
Sale-leaseback pipeline: Near-term capex demand muted, but refinancing could catalyze SLB; mgmt estimates ~$2B of real estate on public operator balance sheets as potential source .
International optionality: Evaluating opportunities in Europe (Germany fully legalized), potential to follow tenants abroad .

Estimates Context

Metric	Q3 2024 Estimate*	Q3 2024 Actual	Q4 2024 Estimate*	Q4 2024 Actual	Q1 2025 Estimate*	Q1 2025 Actual
Revenue ($USD)	$12.152M*	$12.554M	$12.609M*	$12.514M	$12.294M*	$13.209M
Primary EPS ($)	$0.31*	$0.31	$0.31*	$0.29	$0.29*	$0.31
EBITDA ($USD)	N/A	$10.361M* (actual)	N/A	$10.533M* (actual)	$10.737M*	$10.376M* (actual)

Q1 2025: Bold beat on revenue and EPS; modest EBITDA miss.
FY 2025 consensus: EPS $1.29*, Revenue $51.16M*, EBITDA $44.00M*.

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Notes: The “actual” EBITDA values are provided in S&P data; company reports AFFO/FFO but EBITDA consensus is used for consistency.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

Resilient quarter with improved top-line and EPS vs consensus; dividend coverage remains robust within target, supported by low leverage and ample liquidity .
Tenant issues are being actively managed: Rev Clinics’ receivership impact is quantified and time-bound; Calypso rent fully collected for Q1 with recapitalization improving outlook .
Near-term deployment likely modest; TI disbursement delays and cautious industry backdrop temper growth, but selective accretive deals continue (e.g., Cresco OH) .
Potential medium-term catalysts: Pennsylvania adult-use momentum and DEA rescheduling, which could improve tenant cash flows and broaden SLB opportunities .
Narrative supportive of defensive income: Management emphasizes property-level cash-flow coverage and limited-license states, insulating rents amid macro/tariff noise .
Monitoring points: Timing of Rev Clinics possession/re-leasing, C3 CT TI resolution, and any updates on international expansion optionality .
Trading implication: Beat on revenue/EPS and reaffirmed dividend may support near-term sentiment; cautious commentary and EBITDA softness suggest balanced positioning until regulatory/tenant catalysts crystallize .

Additional Q1 2025 Documents Reviewed

Q1 2025 financial results press release (full financials, AFFO/FFO reconciliations, balance sheet) .
Q1 2025 earnings call transcripts (prepared remarks and Q&A) - -.
Earnings call announcement press release (logistics) .
Prior two quarters: Q4 2024 press release and call - -; Q3 2024 press release and call - -.

NewLake Capital Partners, Inc. (NLCP)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary